Journal of Business & Economic Policy

External Sector Variables and the Performance of the Real Sector in Nigeria: The Case of Agriculture
Okumoko, Tubo Pearce Ph.D; Amaegberi, A. Michael Ph.D; Suotor, Memoye

Abstract
This study examines the impact of some external sector variables on agriculture in Nigeria between 1981 and 2016. Time series data were obtained from CBN database and Swift Data Manager for the period under review. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) multiple regression technique was employed to analyze the data. The Philip-Perron (P-P) and Granger Causality tests were carried out for stationarity and direction of causality of the regressors. The variables BOP, EXR, EXD were found to be statistically significant except ODA. While TAQ and ODA; and EXR and EXD were found to have feedback effects which created trade imbalance within the period under review. It was also found that BOP, EXR and EXD promoted agricultural output within the period under review. Therefore, the study suggests among other things that agriculture should be promoted through agricultural policy measures that are aggressively and effectively sustainable without political bias; government should be cautious in her external borrowing behavior and should promote export-led industrialization strategy as it has the ability and potential to translate into positive multiplier effects in the economy.

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