Journal of Business & Economic Policy

Use Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags Models (ARDL) to Predict Inclusive Growth in Jordan in 2003 – 2017
Dr. Mohammad Alalaya, Dr. Mohammad, Almahameed

Abstract
This paper utilizes of auto regression distributed lag model to analyze the inclusive growth in Jordan for the period 2003-2017, the paper provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between inclusive growth through the determinants variables which suggested that these affected variables. The ARDL model testing the dynamic short – run and long – run, the error correction method ECM to investigate the long – run. AiC is chosen as lag length, also bound test meth has been used, the cointegration test, and (ECM) error correction method supported by diagnostic test results. The finding of this study indicates that there is a positive effect of inflation and population growth on inclusive grow in Jordan, also the FDI has a negative relationship in the short – run, but significantly positive contribution to inclusive grow in long – run.

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