Journal of Business & Economic Policy

The Impact of International and Domestic Goods Trade Fluctuations on Shanghai's Economy: A Regional CGE Model-based Scenario Analysis
Lin Sun

Abstract
This paper examines the effect of international trade and domestic goods trade on the Shanghai economy using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model. The model distinguishes fourteen industry sectors, new dataset based on the 2015 input-output table, and offers simulations for the 2019-2030 periods. The simulation results indicate that the growth of goods export to the domestic market will promote the growth of real GDP of Shanghai economy, but the growth of goods export to the international market has the opposite effect. Simultaneously, the goods trade with the domestic market has more influence on Shanghai economy than international market. That is mean Shanghai economy has a closer relationship with the domestic market than the international market, has the ability to cope with fluctuations in the international market.

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